Sugar crisis? Thailand has opportunities

The global sugar market is facing a complex dance of factors that could push prices upwards. While a slowdown in interest rate hikes and a cooling off of some geopolitical tensions offer some relief, the overall economic picture remains uncertain. Elections in over 70 countries and the ongoing situation in the Middle East could create market jitters. China’s economic health is also a major player, with a weak economy dampening demand for commodities like sugar. This hesitant economic climate is keeping a lid on sugar prices for now, despite a significant production decline.

Climate change is throwing another curveball at the sugar industry. El Niño, a weather pattern that brings warmer temperatures and altered rainfall patterns, began in June 2023. This has led to drier conditions in parts of Asia, West Africa, and Australia, impacting sugarcane yields in key producers like India and Thailand. The lack of rain has resulted in reduced harvests, with India even being forced to forego sugar exports in 2024. Even in Brazil, the world’s leading sugar producer, dry weather is forecast during a crucial period for sugarcane development, raising concerns about the upcoming harvest and potential supply shortages in 2025.

The global sugar market is currently in a wait-and-see mode. While geopolitical tensions and elections pose some uncertainty, the main factors influencing sugar prices in the near future are the upcoming Brazilian harvest and potential El Niño impacts in 2024/25. Despite a surplus in 2023/24, concerns about dry weather in Brazil’s key growing season could tighten supply in 2025. This year, global sugar production is expected to reach 194 million tonnes, with Brazil holding the dominant market share due to reduced harvests in India and Thailand.


Looking for a reliable source of premium Thai sugar? Thailand remains a global leader in sugar production, ranking third worldwide. They’re particularly known for their exceptional quality, especially the highly refined icumsa 45 grade. With my extensive experience in the export field and strong connections within the Thai Ministry of Commerce, I can connect you directly with sugar production factories, guaranteeing a smooth and efficient sourcing process that delivers the high-quality Thai sugar you need.

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